You have 12 shots in life

I love to work.

Work, to me, is the process of creating artifacts, experiments, and artworks. They don't have to be monetary, but they should be beautiful as I create them and yield positive impact on the world. Such that I feel like I've actually lived.

This got me thinking about how to maximize impact across a lifetime. Here's the math: If you're a young and healthy adult, you probably have about 50 working years. If you commit 2-10 years per major project, that's 5-25 shots at creating something great (this varies by industry and life stage).

Let's take the average: 4 years per shot, around 12 shots total. Hence, you have 12 shots in life.

Shots can be joining a startup, starting a company, working on a major project, or changing careers entirely. They are substantial and leave lasting artifacts.

But not all shots are created equal. To create something great, there are forces that determine success.

the wisdom of 天地人

The Chinese concept of 天地人 captures the three forces that shape every great work:

天 (heaven): mastering timing
地 (earth): being in the right environment
人 (person): building with people

And these three things are intentionally placed in the order of 天 > 地 > 人. Timing has more energy and pull than the right place, than the right people.

Let me break down how to think about each force.

天 (timing): the power of when

天: Global market cycles, technological shifts, cultural moments that happen regardless of location

Life follows power law distributions. 20% of your shots will create 80% of your impact. Most shots will fail or plateau, while a few will compound beyond your wildest expectations.

This changes everything about how to play. You don't need to be right 100% of the time. You need to be really right 20% of the time. Sometimes, you just need to be really right once out of 12 shots - that's only 8% success rate for extraordinary impact.

But the challenge everyone faces is timing is nearly impossible to predict intellectually. So how do you know when the timing is right?

The best opportunities feel like they're pulling you in. You know because:

• Intuition screams yes. Not your head but your gut. When you know, you know.

• G-force sensation. The project has in-your-face momentum. People are sprinting without being asked. Energy compounds daily. You feel swept up, not pushing forward.

• It creates compound leverage. Success here unlocks bigger opportunities. You'll be stronger and more connected after this shot, regardless of outcome.

When 天 aligns, you don't have to convince yourself or others as the momentum is obvious and infectious.

地 (place): the power of where

地: Where you position yourself to catch those global waves first/best

This also raises the natural next question: how do you put yourself in position to recognize and catch these waves?

This is where 地 becomes crucial. Geography, ecosystem, environment and infrastructure determine what opportunities you can even see, let alone access.

You need to position yourself where the waves are forming.

Location: the same idea in Silicon Valley versus a small town creates different outcomes. Most people maximize their chances by locating in major innovation hubs and places where your industry is concentrated.

Industry: industries with high leverage and growth potential. For example, there’s often huge leverage with tech (productivity boost) and capital (productivity multiplier).

Now this doesn’t mean you can’t be at a small(er) city doing different things to succeed, but to maximize the chance of finding opportunities for most people, the above places are the most widely applicable.

Even though you can't time 天 (although you can recognize it), you can choose the right 地.

but what if you don't have access to the right time and right place yet?

This is where the red paperclip principle comes in. One Canadian blogger traded from a red paperclip to a two-story house in 14 trades. The lessons here are:

1. You probably already have what you need to get started

2. Even if you don’t, you can acquire what you need along the way through momentum and relationships

I realize not everyone can relocate to innovation hubs immediately. Family, finances, and circumstances matter. But you can start building momentum from wherever you are.

Even if you don't have the right opportunity yet, you can create momentum through bias towards action and small experiments, which helps you recognize patterns and builds relationships that unlock better timing/place positioning.

The space between major shots matters as much as the shots themselves. Use downtimes for small experiments, relationship building, and positioning yourself in better 地 for when the next 天 moment arrives.

And when it’s time and you're about to get on a rocket ship, you don't ask what seat you get or whether you’re fully prepared or not - you just ride with it.

人 (people): why this matters least (with important nuances)

The counterintuitive thing here is an average team can hit a home run solving the right problem at the right time, whereas an extraordinary team can struggle solving the wrong problem at the wrong time.

I've seen brilliant teams waste years on beautiful solutions to problems nobody cares about. I've also seen mediocre teams stumble into billion-dollar markets and suddenly look like geniuses.

But let me add crucial nuance: this doesn't mean people don't matter. It means:

• Great teams can't overcome terrible timing/place, but they can create their own timing/place through persistence, innovation and vision

• Average teams need obvious timing/place alignment to succeed

• In ambiguous situations, choose the great team as they're more likely to recognize and adapt to timing/place changes

• The best scenario is great team + great timing + great place, but if you can only get 2 out of 3, prioritize timing and place

• The team doesn’t need to have the most capable people, but for your happiness sake, ideally the team has good vibes and culture

Skills, relationships, and conviction absolutely matter as they determine your ability to recognize good timing/place alignment and execute when you find it.

how to evaluate your shots

Good shots (take these even if they might fail):

• Feel intuitively right internally (your gut says yes)

• Have external momentum and traction

• Offer asymmetric upside (capped downside, unlimited upside)

• Position you for better future shots regardless of outcome

Bad shots (be patient and avoid these):

• Feel forced or desperate (you're just optimizing for motion)

• Lack external traction despite your efforts

• Have high downside with limited learning potential

• Don't expand your capabilities or relationships

Once you identify a good shot through 天地人 analysis, be willing to fail. These are asymmetric bets where you "fail upwards" - the experience, learning, and relationships position you for better future shots.

stop thinking in jobs, start thinking in shots

Each shot should expand your capabilities, compound your relationships, create lasting artifacts and position you for better future shots. Your shots should get bigger as you get better.

They're all part of the same game - creating beautiful, impactful work that makes you feel like you've truly lived.

How will you use your 12 shots?

Disclaimer — Informational & Personal Views Only: The content reflects my personal opinions at the time of writing. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or other professional advice. I am not a licensed financial-services professional. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers for your circumstances. All information is presented "as is" without warranties. You alone are responsible for any actions based on this content. External links don't imply endorsement. Past performance doesn't indicate future results.